Package: goldilocks 0.5.0.9000

goldilocks: Goldilocks Adaptive Trial Designs for Time-to-Event Endpoints

Implements the Goldilocks adaptive trial design for a time to event outcome using a piecewise exponential model and conjugate Gamma prior distributions. The method closely follows the article by Broglio and colleagues <doi:10.1080/10543406.2014.888569>, which allows users to explore the operating characteristics of different trial designs.

Authors:Graeme L. Hickey [aut, cre], Ying Wan [aut], Thevaa Chandereng [aut], Becton, Dickinson and Company [cph], Tim Kacprowski [ctb]

goldilocks_0.5.0.9000.tar.gz
goldilocks_0.5.0.9000.zip(r-4.7-x86_64)goldilocks_0.5.0.9000.zip(r-4.6-x86_64)goldilocks_0.5.0.9000.zip(r-4.5-x86_64)
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goldilocks_0.5.0.9000.tgz(r-4.6-emscripten)
manual.pdf |manual.html
DESCRIPTION |NEWS
card.svg |card.png
goldilocks/json (API)

# Install 'goldilocks' in R:
install.packages('goldilocks', repos = c('https://graemeleehickey.r-universe.dev', 'https://cloud.r-project.org'))

Bug tracker:https://github.com/graemeleehickey/goldilocks/issues

Pkgdown/docs site:https://graemeleehickey.github.io

Uses libs:
  • c++– GNU Standard C++ Library v3

On CRAN:

Conda:

adaptivebayesianbayesian-statisticsclinical-trialsstatisticscpp

6.63 score 7 stars 19 scripts 244 downloads 15 exports 22 dependencies

Last updated from:516782512f. Checks:13 OK. Indexed: yes.

TargetResultTimeFilesSyslog
linux-devel-arm64OK166
linux-devel-x86_64OK162
source / vignettesOK405
linux-release-arm64OK154
linux-release-x86_64OK164
macos-release-arm64OK104
macos-release-x86_64OK227
macos-oldrel-arm64OK119
macos-oldrel-x86_64OK316
windows-devel-x86_64OK151
windows-release-x86_64OK159
windows-oldrel-x86_64OK152
wasm-releaseOK141

Exports:enrollmentplot_sim_decisionsplot_sim_ocsplot_sim_stoppingplot_trial_traceppweprop_to_hazpwe_imputepwe_simrandomizationsim_comp_datasim_trialssummarise_simssummarise_trial_tracesurvival_adapt

Dependencies:BHclidplyrgenericsgluelatticelifecyclemagrittrMatrixpbmcapplypillarpkgconfigPWEALLR6Rcpprlangsurvivaltibbletidyselectutf8vctrswithr

Package architecture
Overview | Function dependency diagram | Function roles | Simulation layer | Post-processing functions | Data generation and analysis utilities

Last update: 2026-07-23
Started: 2026-06-09

Single-arm designs with a performance goal
The decision rule | Setting up the design | Operating characteristics | A practical caveat on benchmarks | See also

Last update: 2026-07-23
Started: 2026-06-10

Technical details of the Goldilocks design
Vignette summary | 1. Design and notation | 2. Continuous-time enrollment process | 3. Event-time model | 4. Posterior distribution of hazards | $$\pi(\boldsymbol{\lambda} \mid \mathcal{D}) | 5. Predictive distribution for incomplete outcomes | $$p(\mathcal{D}^{\mathrm{mis}} \mid \mathcal{D}_{\ell}^{\mathrm{obs}}) | 6. Interim decision algorithm | 5.1 Predictive probability at the current sample size | $$P_ | 5.2 Predictive probability at the maximum sample size | $$P_ | 7. Final analysis | 6.1 Frequentist final tests | 6.2 Bayesian survival final test | $$\Delta^ | \left[1 - \exp{-H_1^{(b)}(\tau)}\right] | $$\widehat{\Pr}(\Delta < h_0 \mid \mathcal{D}) | 6.3 Bayesian binary final test | 6.4 Loss to follow-up at the final analysis | 8. Operating characteristics | 7.1 Visual diagnostics | 9. Threshold selection | 10. Relation to group-sequential designs | 11. Package-specific scope | References

Last update: 2026-07-23
Started: 2026-06-16

Two-arm randomized trials
One-sided tests | References

Last update: 2026-07-23
Started: 2026-07-12

Bayesian binary outcome designs
Two-arm design | Choosing the binary imputation approach | Single-arm design | Choosing bin_method | Operating characteristics

Last update: 2026-07-23
Started: 2026-07-05

ADVENT: a published Goldilocks design
Trial overview | The Goldilocks flow | Endpoint scale | SAP event-time models and time units | Effectiveness endpoint | Safety endpoint | A compact design object | Visualizing the simulated design | A fuller simulation template | SAP sensitivity assumptions and reference benchmarks | References

Last update: 2026-07-22
Started: 2026-07-05

Bayesian piecewise-exponential designs
When piecewise hazards help | Setting up the design | The Bayesian decision rule | What a simulated trial dataset looks like | A single simulated trial | Notes on the piecewise model | Sensitivity to the cut-point specification | See also

Last update: 2026-07-22
Started: 2026-06-10

Inspecting adaptive decision paths
A traced trial | Visualizing the path | Summarizing many simulated trials

Last update: 2026-07-19
Started: 2026-07-10